Malcolm Farrow, Head of Public Affairs at OFTEC, explores why the road to net zero must consider the voter as well as the technology.
As we wait for the government’s Warm Homes Plan, there is a sense of déjà vu. In 2021, the then Conservative government unveiled its Heat and Buildings Strategy which set out the direction of travel for its net zero policy agenda. However, it was relatively short lived as plans to phase out oil boilers in favour of heat pumps became increasingly unpopular. The backlash from MPs and rural consumers grew and the government, as a result of political pressure, performed a u-turn.
There’s an important lesson here. Politics and policy are not separate entities, they are two sides of the same coin. So, as the new government prepares to publish its own decarbonisation strategy it’s critical mistakes aren’t repeated. The changes to winter fuel payments showed how a policy initiative can quickly become a political liability. The changing public mood and opinion polls, reflected in the local elections, put Labour in a position where a u-turn is now expected. If the Warm Homes Plan is to avoid the same fate, there are five key political considerations for Labour.
1. Policies are viewed through the prism of the cost of living crisis
The cost of living crisis and rising bills continues to be the main area of concern for households. To succeed, any net zero policy must be workable in this challenging landscape. Opinion polls show consumers, on the whole, are not generally opposed to the principle of reducing carbon emissions. However, they are deeply wary of policies that will be costly to them personally or require substantial government investment which could be spent elsewhere.
There is currently a disconnect between the government’s technological policy approach of electrification and the cost of living crisis consumers are feeling. This is especially true in the off-grid sector where the cost of retrofitting homes with heat pumps is often very expensive. That’s one of the main reasons uptake of heat pumps remains well below target. We’re already seeing push back from consumers on the costs of net zero, which political opponents are capitalising on.
The reality is Labour’s current blanket approach, focused on electrification, will come up against increasing political pressure. In contrast, renewable liquid fuels, such as Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO), aren’t just technologically viable, they are politically viable too. That’s why they need to be included in the Warm Homes Plan.
2. Ignored voters make their voice heard at the ballot box
One of the defining features of recent debates over landmark government policies has been the sense that decisions are being made in closed rooms. Changes to winter fuel payments are the perfect example. For months, households warned about the impact of the approach Labour was taking but felt ignored. They made their voice heard at the ballot box in the local elections. The policy is now under review but, even so, it may still be remembered in four years’ time.
If the Government wants to avoid the same issues around decarbonisation, the views of rural households need to be listened to. This means proactively speaking with rural communities, understanding the realities of their situation, and involving them in the decision-making process. Successful policies are formed working with people, not dictating to them.
3. Labour has made promises to rural communities
From broadband access to transport investment, rural areas have long felt like the poor relations in national policy, overlooked and under invested. Could decarbonisation be the next on this list? Electrification is more costly for rural communities and there’s a growing sense that, again, rural homes are being ignored. At the last election, Labour, which typically sees most support in urban areas, made significant inroads in rural constituencies.
However, in many of these seats Reform is not that far behind. Labour may historically be used to developing policy with urban voters in mind, but they now have to give greater consideration to rural areas. As the next election draws closer, if these newly elected Labour MPs in rural areas want to keep their seats, they will have to advocate on behalf of their constituents and ensure national policy decisions around net zero have workable solutions for off grid households.
4. For consumers it’s about more than just technology
Policy discussions around low carbon heating understandably often focus on the technology. For the civil servants, this is typically the main consideration. However, for consumers, the specific technology in their home is less relevant. What’s more important are the outcomes. How much will it cost to transition? How disruptive will it be? How efficient is the new heating system?
Consumers will judge government policies on whether they deliver these outcomes. That’s why the Warm Homes Plan needs to set out how the government’s recommended approach to achieving net zero will benefit consumers. We know there are unique challenges in the above areas if you transition rural homes onto heat pumps. Renewable liquid fuels offer a pathway which overcomes these issues. Successive policies are hard to achieve without support from consumers.
5. Working positively with rural households
There’s a genuine desire among consumers to play their part in cutting emissions. But people want to do it in a way that makes sense for their homes and is both practical and affordable. There is sometimes the feeling that policymakers see the public as stakeholders to manage. Instead, they need to be seen as partners in the solution.
The transition to net zero doesn’t have to be about managing political risk. By offering multiple solutions, including both heat pumps and renewable liquid fuels, consumers will have a genuine choice over how they switch to cleaner heating. This is both technologically feasible and politically attractive. The government needs to put in place this framework and then give consumers the power to make their own decisions.
Labour is facing a real challenge to manage a fragile economy with increased political pressure on their net zero policies. The Warm Homes Plan represents an opportunity to reset the conversation. To move beyond a dictated policy approach and instead embrace a pragmatic and flexible approach which works for consumers. Politics matters. If policies ignore public sentiment, they typically fail, as we’ve seen many times before.
